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Table 2 
Logistic Regression Analysis
Variable(1)(2)(3)(4)
Log. nbr. pos. WaRI (ten years)   0.0899 (0.0461)+ 0.3237 (0.0723)** −0.0763 (0.0666) 
Number of IGOs t − 1 0.0002 (0.000)** 0.0002 (0.000)** 0.0000 (0.0001) 0.0004 (0.0002)* 
Democracies 0.0153 (0.0053)** 0.0156 (0.0054)** 0.0374 (0.0052)** −0.0237 (0.0101)* 
Interstate conflict 0.6592 (0.2842)* 0.6270 (0.2916)* −14.7225 (0.3419)** 0.3520 (0.2821) 
Peace years −0.0377 (0.0076)** −0.0369 (0.0076)** −0.0096 (0.0097) −0.0371 (0.0183)* 
Peace years sq. 1.072 (0.1702)** 1.0622 (0.17)** 3.0559 (0.4824)** 0.6405 (0.2771)* 
Rel. military capacities −0.0001 (0.000) 0.0000 (0.000) 0.0014 (0.0004)** 0.0001 (0.0024) 
Systemic shock 1.1293 (0.1775)** 1.1634 (0.1817)** 2.3621 (0.257)** 0.4354 (0.2301)+ 
Time trend 0.0108 (0.0059)+ 0.0090 (0.0059) −0.0060 (0.0079) 0.0615 (0.0118)** 
Constant −5.5180 (0.2902)** −5.3869 (0.2864)** −8.8819 (0.5212)** −5.0292 (0.4556)** 
Number of observations 14,981 14,981 12,099 2,882 
Log likelihood −948.21 −945.97 −309.97 −468.5 
AUC 0.74 0.74 0.92 0.69 
Variable(1)(2)(3)(4)
Log. nbr. pos. WaRI (ten years)   0.0899 (0.0461)+ 0.3237 (0.0723)** −0.0763 (0.0666) 
Number of IGOs t − 1 0.0002 (0.000)** 0.0002 (0.000)** 0.0000 (0.0001) 0.0004 (0.0002)* 
Democracies 0.0153 (0.0053)** 0.0156 (0.0054)** 0.0374 (0.0052)** −0.0237 (0.0101)* 
Interstate conflict 0.6592 (0.2842)* 0.6270 (0.2916)* −14.7225 (0.3419)** 0.3520 (0.2821) 
Peace years −0.0377 (0.0076)** −0.0369 (0.0076)** −0.0096 (0.0097) −0.0371 (0.0183)* 
Peace years sq. 1.072 (0.1702)** 1.0622 (0.17)** 3.0559 (0.4824)** 0.6405 (0.2771)* 
Rel. military capacities −0.0001 (0.000) 0.0000 (0.000) 0.0014 (0.0004)** 0.0001 (0.0024) 
Systemic shock 1.1293 (0.1775)** 1.1634 (0.1817)** 2.3621 (0.257)** 0.4354 (0.2301)+ 
Time trend 0.0108 (0.0059)+ 0.0090 (0.0059) −0.0060 (0.0079) 0.0615 (0.0118)** 
Constant −5.5180 (0.2902)** −5.3869 (0.2864)** −8.8819 (0.5212)** −5.0292 (0.4556)** 
Number of observations 14,981 14,981 12,099 2,882 
Log likelihood −948.21 −945.97 −309.97 −468.5 
AUC 0.74 0.74 0.92 0.69 

Note. Clustered standard errors in parentheses. DV = probability of shift toward more peaceful interstate relations.

**p < 0.01, *p < 0.05, +p < 0.10.

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