| Variable . | (1) . | (2) . | (3) . | (4) . |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Log. nbr. pos. WaRI (ten years) | 0.0899 (0.0461)+ | 0.3237 (0.0723)** | −0.0763 (0.0666) | |
| Number of IGOs t − 1 | 0.0002 (0.000)** | 0.0002 (0.000)** | 0.0000 (0.0001) | 0.0004 (0.0002)* |
| Democracies | 0.0153 (0.0053)** | 0.0156 (0.0054)** | 0.0374 (0.0052)** | −0.0237 (0.0101)* |
| Interstate conflict | 0.6592 (0.2842)* | 0.6270 (0.2916)* | −14.7225 (0.3419)** | 0.3520 (0.2821) |
| Peace years | −0.0377 (0.0076)** | −0.0369 (0.0076)** | −0.0096 (0.0097) | −0.0371 (0.0183)* |
| Peace years sq. | 1.072 (0.1702)** | 1.0622 (0.17)** | 3.0559 (0.4824)** | 0.6405 (0.2771)* |
| Rel. military capacities | −0.0001 (0.000) | 0.0000 (0.000) | 0.0014 (0.0004)** | 0.0001 (0.0024) |
| Systemic shock | 1.1293 (0.1775)** | 1.1634 (0.1817)** | 2.3621 (0.257)** | 0.4354 (0.2301)+ |
| Time trend | 0.0108 (0.0059)+ | 0.0090 (0.0059) | −0.0060 (0.0079) | 0.0615 (0.0118)** |
| Constant | −5.5180 (0.2902)** | −5.3869 (0.2864)** | −8.8819 (0.5212)** | −5.0292 (0.4556)** |
| Number of observations | 14,981 | 14,981 | 12,099 | 2,882 |
| Log likelihood | −948.21 | −945.97 | −309.97 | −468.5 |
| AUC | 0.74 | 0.74 | 0.92 | 0.69 |
| Variable . | (1) . | (2) . | (3) . | (4) . |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Log. nbr. pos. WaRI (ten years) | 0.0899 (0.0461)+ | 0.3237 (0.0723)** | −0.0763 (0.0666) | |
| Number of IGOs t − 1 | 0.0002 (0.000)** | 0.0002 (0.000)** | 0.0000 (0.0001) | 0.0004 (0.0002)* |
| Democracies | 0.0153 (0.0053)** | 0.0156 (0.0054)** | 0.0374 (0.0052)** | −0.0237 (0.0101)* |
| Interstate conflict | 0.6592 (0.2842)* | 0.6270 (0.2916)* | −14.7225 (0.3419)** | 0.3520 (0.2821) |
| Peace years | −0.0377 (0.0076)** | −0.0369 (0.0076)** | −0.0096 (0.0097) | −0.0371 (0.0183)* |
| Peace years sq. | 1.072 (0.1702)** | 1.0622 (0.17)** | 3.0559 (0.4824)** | 0.6405 (0.2771)* |
| Rel. military capacities | −0.0001 (0.000) | 0.0000 (0.000) | 0.0014 (0.0004)** | 0.0001 (0.0024) |
| Systemic shock | 1.1293 (0.1775)** | 1.1634 (0.1817)** | 2.3621 (0.257)** | 0.4354 (0.2301)+ |
| Time trend | 0.0108 (0.0059)+ | 0.0090 (0.0059) | −0.0060 (0.0079) | 0.0615 (0.0118)** |
| Constant | −5.5180 (0.2902)** | −5.3869 (0.2864)** | −8.8819 (0.5212)** | −5.0292 (0.4556)** |
| Number of observations | 14,981 | 14,981 | 12,099 | 2,882 |
| Log likelihood | −948.21 | −945.97 | −309.97 | −468.5 |
| AUC | 0.74 | 0.74 | 0.92 | 0.69 |
Note. Clustered standard errors in parentheses. DV = probability of shift toward more peaceful interstate relations.
**p < 0.01, *p < 0.05, +p < 0.10.