| Variable . | (5) . | (6) . | (7) . | (8) . | (9) . | (10) . | (11) . | (12) . |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Log. nbr. pos. WaRI (ten years) | 0.1026 (0.0496)* | 0.0910 (0.0419)* | 0.0889 (0.0419)* | |||||
| Log. nbr. pos. WaRI (two years) | 0.0853 (0.061) | |||||||
| Log. nbr. pos. WaRI (five years) | 0.0609 (0.052) | |||||||
| Log. nbr. pos. WaRI (eight years) | 0.0447 (0.0495) | |||||||
| Log. nbr. high. pos. WaRI (ten years) | 0.0780 (0.0514) | |||||||
| Log. sum WaRI scores (ten years) | 0.0362 (0.0235) | |||||||
| Number of IGOs t − 1 | 0.0002 (0.0000)** | 0.0002 (0.0000)** | 0.0002 (0.0000)** | 0.0002 (0.0000)** | 0.0002 (0.0000)** | 0.0002 (0.0000)** | 0.0002 (0.0000)** | 0.0002 (0.0000)** |
| Log. trade (ten years) | 0.1128 (0.0356)** | |||||||
| Democracies | 0.0155 (0.0053)** | 0.0155 (0.0053)** | 0.0155 (0.0053)** | 0.0155 (0.0054)** | 0.0156 (0.0054)** | 0.0162 (0.0052)** | 0.0156 (0.0052)** | |
| Interstate conflict | 0.6267 (0.2921)* | 0.6371 (0.2897)* | 0.6446 (0.2883)* | 0.6451 (0.2889)* | 0.6418 (0.288)* | 0.1305 (0.4126) | 0.6494 (0.2883)* | 0.6270 (0.2883)* |
| Peace years | −0.0371 (0.0076)** | −0.0371 (0.0076)** | −0.0373 (0.0076)** | −0.0375 (0.0076)** | −0.0373 (0.0076)** | −0.0401 (0.0081)** | −0.0375 (0.0068)** | −0.0369 (0.0069)** |
| Peace years sq. | 1.0685 (0.1693)** | 1.0699 (0.1694)** | 1.0682 (0.1703)** | 1.0619 (0.1708)** | 1.0613 (0.1705)** | 0.9826 (0.2055)** | 1.0546 (0.1763)** | 1.0622 (0.1763)** |
| Rel. military capacities | −0.0001 (0.0006) | −0.0001 (0.0006) | −0.0001 (0.0006) | 0.0000 (0.0006) | 0.0000 (0.0006) | −0.0010 (0.0013) | 0.0008 (0.0009) | 0.0000 (0.0009) |
| Systemic shock | 1.1242 (0.1781)** | 1.1368 (0.1792)** | 1.1417 (0.1794)** | 1.1583 (0.181)** | 1.1598 (0.1814)** | 0.9903 (0.2257)** | 1.1692 (0.1781)** | 1.1634 (0.1781)** |
| Time trend | 0.0098 (0.0059) | 0.0099 (0.0059) | 0.0100 (0.0059) | 0.0101 (0.0058) | 0.0097 (0.0059) | 0.0131 (0.0079) | 0.0086 (0.0065) | 0.0090 (0.0065) |
| Constant | −5.3382 (0.2975)** | −5.4112 (0.2928)** | −5.4464 (0.2899)** | −5.3989 (0.2856)** | −5.4205 (0.2855)** | −5.4191 (0.4239)** | −5.3754 (0.3095)** | −5.3869 (0.3096)** |
| Number of observations | 14,981 | 14,981 | 14,981 | 14,981 | 14,981 | 10,605 | 14,981 | 14,981 |
| Log likelihood | −947.22 | −947.42 | −947.71 | −947.03 | −946.93 | −633.18 | −945.97 | |
| AUC | 0.74 | 0.74 | 0.74 | 0.74 | 0.74 | 0.76 | 0.74 | 0.74 |
| Rare-event correction | – | – | – | – | – | – | yes | – |
| Random effects | – | – | – | – | – | – | – | yes |
| Variable . | (5) . | (6) . | (7) . | (8) . | (9) . | (10) . | (11) . | (12) . |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Log. nbr. pos. WaRI (ten years) | 0.1026 (0.0496)* | 0.0910 (0.0419)* | 0.0889 (0.0419)* | |||||
| Log. nbr. pos. WaRI (two years) | 0.0853 (0.061) | |||||||
| Log. nbr. pos. WaRI (five years) | 0.0609 (0.052) | |||||||
| Log. nbr. pos. WaRI (eight years) | 0.0447 (0.0495) | |||||||
| Log. nbr. high. pos. WaRI (ten years) | 0.0780 (0.0514) | |||||||
| Log. sum WaRI scores (ten years) | 0.0362 (0.0235) | |||||||
| Number of IGOs t − 1 | 0.0002 (0.0000)** | 0.0002 (0.0000)** | 0.0002 (0.0000)** | 0.0002 (0.0000)** | 0.0002 (0.0000)** | 0.0002 (0.0000)** | 0.0002 (0.0000)** | 0.0002 (0.0000)** |
| Log. trade (ten years) | 0.1128 (0.0356)** | |||||||
| Democracies | 0.0155 (0.0053)** | 0.0155 (0.0053)** | 0.0155 (0.0053)** | 0.0155 (0.0054)** | 0.0156 (0.0054)** | 0.0162 (0.0052)** | 0.0156 (0.0052)** | |
| Interstate conflict | 0.6267 (0.2921)* | 0.6371 (0.2897)* | 0.6446 (0.2883)* | 0.6451 (0.2889)* | 0.6418 (0.288)* | 0.1305 (0.4126) | 0.6494 (0.2883)* | 0.6270 (0.2883)* |
| Peace years | −0.0371 (0.0076)** | −0.0371 (0.0076)** | −0.0373 (0.0076)** | −0.0375 (0.0076)** | −0.0373 (0.0076)** | −0.0401 (0.0081)** | −0.0375 (0.0068)** | −0.0369 (0.0069)** |
| Peace years sq. | 1.0685 (0.1693)** | 1.0699 (0.1694)** | 1.0682 (0.1703)** | 1.0619 (0.1708)** | 1.0613 (0.1705)** | 0.9826 (0.2055)** | 1.0546 (0.1763)** | 1.0622 (0.1763)** |
| Rel. military capacities | −0.0001 (0.0006) | −0.0001 (0.0006) | −0.0001 (0.0006) | 0.0000 (0.0006) | 0.0000 (0.0006) | −0.0010 (0.0013) | 0.0008 (0.0009) | 0.0000 (0.0009) |
| Systemic shock | 1.1242 (0.1781)** | 1.1368 (0.1792)** | 1.1417 (0.1794)** | 1.1583 (0.181)** | 1.1598 (0.1814)** | 0.9903 (0.2257)** | 1.1692 (0.1781)** | 1.1634 (0.1781)** |
| Time trend | 0.0098 (0.0059) | 0.0099 (0.0059) | 0.0100 (0.0059) | 0.0101 (0.0058) | 0.0097 (0.0059) | 0.0131 (0.0079) | 0.0086 (0.0065) | 0.0090 (0.0065) |
| Constant | −5.3382 (0.2975)** | −5.4112 (0.2928)** | −5.4464 (0.2899)** | −5.3989 (0.2856)** | −5.4205 (0.2855)** | −5.4191 (0.4239)** | −5.3754 (0.3095)** | −5.3869 (0.3096)** |
| Number of observations | 14,981 | 14,981 | 14,981 | 14,981 | 14,981 | 10,605 | 14,981 | 14,981 |
| Log likelihood | −947.22 | −947.42 | −947.71 | −947.03 | −946.93 | −633.18 | −945.97 | |
| AUC | 0.74 | 0.74 | 0.74 | 0.74 | 0.74 | 0.76 | 0.74 | 0.74 |
| Rare-event correction | – | – | – | – | – | – | yes | – |
| Random effects | – | – | – | – | – | – | – | yes |
Note. Clustered standard errors in parentheses. DV = probability of shift toward more peaceful interstate relations.
**p < 0.01, *p < 0.05, +p < 0.10.