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Table 3 
Robustness Checks
Variable(5)(6)(7)(8)(9)(10)(11)(12)
Log. nbr. pos. WaRI (ten years)           0.1026 (0.0496)* 0.0910 (0.0419)* 0.0889 (0.0419)* 
Log. nbr. pos. WaRI (two years) 0.0853 (0.061)               
Log. nbr. pos. WaRI (five years)   0.0609 (0.052)             
Log. nbr. pos. WaRI (eight years)     0.0447 (0.0495)           
Log. nbr. high. pos. WaRI (ten years)       0.0780 (0.0514)         
Log. sum WaRI scores (ten years)         0.0362 (0.0235)       
Number of IGOs t − 1 0.0002 (0.0000)** 0.0002 (0.0000)** 0.0002 (0.0000)** 0.0002 (0.0000)** 0.0002 (0.0000)** 0.0002 (0.0000)** 0.0002 (0.0000)** 0.0002 (0.0000)** 
Log. trade (ten years)           0.1128 (0.0356)**     
Democracies 0.0155 (0.0053)** 0.0155 (0.0053)** 0.0155 (0.0053)** 0.0155 (0.0054)** 0.0156 (0.0054)**   0.0162 (0.0052)** 0.0156 (0.0052)** 
Interstate conflict 0.6267 (0.2921)* 0.6371 (0.2897)* 0.6446 (0.2883)* 0.6451 (0.2889)* 0.6418 (0.288)* 0.1305 (0.4126) 0.6494 (0.2883)* 0.6270 (0.2883)* 
Peace years −0.0371 (0.0076)** −0.0371 (0.0076)** −0.0373 (0.0076)** −0.0375 (0.0076)** −0.0373 (0.0076)** −0.0401 (0.0081)** −0.0375 (0.0068)** −0.0369 (0.0069)** 
Peace years sq. 1.0685 (0.1693)** 1.0699 (0.1694)** 1.0682 (0.1703)** 1.0619 (0.1708)** 1.0613 (0.1705)** 0.9826 (0.2055)** 1.0546 (0.1763)** 1.0622 (0.1763)** 
Rel. military capacities −0.0001 (0.0006) −0.0001 (0.0006) −0.0001 (0.0006) 0.0000 (0.0006) 0.0000 (0.0006) −0.0010 (0.0013) 0.0008 (0.0009) 0.0000 (0.0009) 
Systemic shock 1.1242 (0.1781)** 1.1368 (0.1792)** 1.1417 (0.1794)** 1.1583 (0.181)** 1.1598 (0.1814)** 0.9903 (0.2257)** 1.1692 (0.1781)** 1.1634 (0.1781)** 
Time trend 0.0098 (0.0059) 0.0099 (0.0059) 0.0100 (0.0059) 0.0101 (0.0058) 0.0097 (0.0059) 0.0131 (0.0079) 0.0086 (0.0065) 0.0090 (0.0065) 
Constant −5.3382 (0.2975)** −5.4112 (0.2928)** −5.4464 (0.2899)** −5.3989 (0.2856)** −5.4205 (0.2855)** −5.4191 (0.4239)** −5.3754 (0.3095)** −5.3869 (0.3096)** 
Number of observations 14,981 14,981 14,981 14,981 14,981 10,605 14,981 14,981 
Log likelihood −947.22 −947.42 −947.71 −947.03 −946.93 −633.18   −945.97 
AUC 0.74 0.74 0.74 0.74 0.74 0.76 0.74 0.74 
Rare-event correction – – – – – – yes – 
Random effects – – – – – – – yes 
Variable(5)(6)(7)(8)(9)(10)(11)(12)
Log. nbr. pos. WaRI (ten years)           0.1026 (0.0496)* 0.0910 (0.0419)* 0.0889 (0.0419)* 
Log. nbr. pos. WaRI (two years) 0.0853 (0.061)               
Log. nbr. pos. WaRI (five years)   0.0609 (0.052)             
Log. nbr. pos. WaRI (eight years)     0.0447 (0.0495)           
Log. nbr. high. pos. WaRI (ten years)       0.0780 (0.0514)         
Log. sum WaRI scores (ten years)         0.0362 (0.0235)       
Number of IGOs t − 1 0.0002 (0.0000)** 0.0002 (0.0000)** 0.0002 (0.0000)** 0.0002 (0.0000)** 0.0002 (0.0000)** 0.0002 (0.0000)** 0.0002 (0.0000)** 0.0002 (0.0000)** 
Log. trade (ten years)           0.1128 (0.0356)**     
Democracies 0.0155 (0.0053)** 0.0155 (0.0053)** 0.0155 (0.0053)** 0.0155 (0.0054)** 0.0156 (0.0054)**   0.0162 (0.0052)** 0.0156 (0.0052)** 
Interstate conflict 0.6267 (0.2921)* 0.6371 (0.2897)* 0.6446 (0.2883)* 0.6451 (0.2889)* 0.6418 (0.288)* 0.1305 (0.4126) 0.6494 (0.2883)* 0.6270 (0.2883)* 
Peace years −0.0371 (0.0076)** −0.0371 (0.0076)** −0.0373 (0.0076)** −0.0375 (0.0076)** −0.0373 (0.0076)** −0.0401 (0.0081)** −0.0375 (0.0068)** −0.0369 (0.0069)** 
Peace years sq. 1.0685 (0.1693)** 1.0699 (0.1694)** 1.0682 (0.1703)** 1.0619 (0.1708)** 1.0613 (0.1705)** 0.9826 (0.2055)** 1.0546 (0.1763)** 1.0622 (0.1763)** 
Rel. military capacities −0.0001 (0.0006) −0.0001 (0.0006) −0.0001 (0.0006) 0.0000 (0.0006) 0.0000 (0.0006) −0.0010 (0.0013) 0.0008 (0.0009) 0.0000 (0.0009) 
Systemic shock 1.1242 (0.1781)** 1.1368 (0.1792)** 1.1417 (0.1794)** 1.1583 (0.181)** 1.1598 (0.1814)** 0.9903 (0.2257)** 1.1692 (0.1781)** 1.1634 (0.1781)** 
Time trend 0.0098 (0.0059) 0.0099 (0.0059) 0.0100 (0.0059) 0.0101 (0.0058) 0.0097 (0.0059) 0.0131 (0.0079) 0.0086 (0.0065) 0.0090 (0.0065) 
Constant −5.3382 (0.2975)** −5.4112 (0.2928)** −5.4464 (0.2899)** −5.3989 (0.2856)** −5.4205 (0.2855)** −5.4191 (0.4239)** −5.3754 (0.3095)** −5.3869 (0.3096)** 
Number of observations 14,981 14,981 14,981 14,981 14,981 10,605 14,981 14,981 
Log likelihood −947.22 −947.42 −947.71 −947.03 −946.93 −633.18   −945.97 
AUC 0.74 0.74 0.74 0.74 0.74 0.76 0.74 0.74 
Rare-event correction – – – – – – yes – 
Random effects – – – – – – – yes 

Note. Clustered standard errors in parentheses. DV = probability of shift toward more peaceful interstate relations.

**p < 0.01, *p < 0.05, +p < 0.10.

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