Table 3. 
Extended Model: Immigration Surplus Changes Due to Induced Migration by Triggers
Destination DSource S
Trigger3rd Generation after a Shock5th Generation after a Shock10th Generation after a Shock10th Generation after a Shock
1. Skill-biased technological shock in D and S 
Human capital 0.01 0.21 1.35 −13.99 
Physical capital 0.05 0.22 1.17 −14.43 
Full income 0.03 0.22 1.28 −14.12 
Utility 0.004 0.04 0.25 −2.40 
2. Adverse fertility shock in D 
Human capital 0.36 1.20 5.15 71.48 
Physical capital −0.12 0.06 2.51 58.20 
Full income 0.10 0.63 3.95 67.66 
Utility 0.04 0.11 0.50 11.79 
3. Adverse productivity shock in S 
Human capital 0.40 −0.08 −2.65 39.33 
Physical capital 0.70 0.13 −2.21 37.27 
Full income 0.40 −0.09 −2.61 38.65 
Utility 0.05 −0.01 −0.27 4.84 
Destination DSource S
Trigger3rd Generation after a Shock5th Generation after a Shock10th Generation after a Shock10th Generation after a Shock
1. Skill-biased technological shock in D and S 
Human capital 0.01 0.21 1.35 −13.99 
Physical capital 0.05 0.22 1.17 −14.43 
Full income 0.03 0.22 1.28 −14.12 
Utility 0.004 0.04 0.25 −2.40 
2. Adverse fertility shock in D 
Human capital 0.36 1.20 5.15 71.48 
Physical capital −0.12 0.06 2.51 58.20 
Full income 0.10 0.63 3.95 67.66 
Utility 0.04 0.11 0.50 11.79 
3. Adverse productivity shock in S 
Human capital 0.40 −0.08 −2.65 39.33 
Physical capital 0.70 0.13 −2.21 37.27 
Full income 0.40 −0.09 −2.61 38.65 
Utility 0.05 −0.01 −0.27 4.84 

Notes: Values are percentage changes in welfare measures. Positive values mean a loss from restricting migration, hence a gain from unrestricted migration.

Source: Authors’ simulation results.

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