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Table 3.
Mass Layoffs and Two-Year College Enrollment, Degrees and Certificates
Fall EnrollmentAssociate Degrees and Certificates
Total (1)First-Time (2)Total (3)AA/AS (4)1—4 Year Certificate (5)<1 Year Certificate (6)
Panel A: Community Colleges 
Layoffs, t − 1 0.011 0.024*** 0.0029 −0.0056 0.031* 0.0079 
 (0.0076) (0.0092) (0.0072) (0.0093) (0.0170) (0.0200) 
Layoffs, t − 2 0.0021 0.016** 0.014** 0.0013 0.022** 0.038** 
 (0.0059) (0.0071) (0.0057) (0.0076) (0.0110) (0.0150) 
Layoffs, t − 3 −0.0017 −0.012 0.00031 −0.018 0.022* 0.012 
 (0.0072) (0.0082) (0.0054) (0.0120) (0.0110) (0.0150) 
Total Effect 0.0111 0.0287 0.017 −0.0227 0.0741 0.0584 
 (0.0159) (0.0173) (0.0139) (0.0259) (0.0332) (0.0374) 
Y-mean 12,184.2 2,138.1 1,664.7 1,051.7 320.8 493.3 
Observations 6,882 6,882 6,872 6,318 6,714 5,354 
R2 0.99 0.98 0.98 0.98 0.9 0.94 
Panel B: For-Profits 
Layoffs, t − 1 0.01 0.016 0.0066 −0.0096 0.0045 0.0045 
 (0.0095) (0.0100) (0.0085) (0.0330) (0.013) (0.0210) 
Layoffs, t − 2 0.011 0.014 0.0071 −0.046 0.011 0.027 
 (0.0088) (0.0095) (0.0081) (0.0290) (0.0120) (0.0210) 
Layoffs, t − 3 0.012 0.011 0.025** −0.0074 0.018 0.018 
 (0.0110) (0.0110) (0.0110) (0.0330) (0.0130) (0.0210) 
Total effect 0.0334 0.041 0.0386 −0.0633 0.034 0.0499 
 (0.0188) (0.0187) (0.0164) (0.0688) (0.0265) (0.0439) 
Y-mean 1,442.9 729.6 945.5 355.9 423.9 486.7 
Observations 4,783 4,783 4,785 2,005 4,656 3,773 
R2 0.98 0.98 0.98 0.91 0.97 0.95 
Year fixed effects 
CZ fixed effects 
CZ Trends 
Fall EnrollmentAssociate Degrees and Certificates
Total (1)First-Time (2)Total (3)AA/AS (4)1—4 Year Certificate (5)<1 Year Certificate (6)
Panel A: Community Colleges 
Layoffs, t − 1 0.011 0.024*** 0.0029 −0.0056 0.031* 0.0079 
 (0.0076) (0.0092) (0.0072) (0.0093) (0.0170) (0.0200) 
Layoffs, t − 2 0.0021 0.016** 0.014** 0.0013 0.022** 0.038** 
 (0.0059) (0.0071) (0.0057) (0.0076) (0.0110) (0.0150) 
Layoffs, t − 3 −0.0017 −0.012 0.00031 −0.018 0.022* 0.012 
 (0.0072) (0.0082) (0.0054) (0.0120) (0.0110) (0.0150) 
Total Effect 0.0111 0.0287 0.017 −0.0227 0.0741 0.0584 
 (0.0159) (0.0173) (0.0139) (0.0259) (0.0332) (0.0374) 
Y-mean 12,184.2 2,138.1 1,664.7 1,051.7 320.8 493.3 
Observations 6,882 6,882 6,872 6,318 6,714 5,354 
R2 0.99 0.98 0.98 0.98 0.9 0.94 
Panel B: For-Profits 
Layoffs, t − 1 0.01 0.016 0.0066 −0.0096 0.0045 0.0045 
 (0.0095) (0.0100) (0.0085) (0.0330) (0.013) (0.0210) 
Layoffs, t − 2 0.011 0.014 0.0071 −0.046 0.011 0.027 
 (0.0088) (0.0095) (0.0081) (0.0290) (0.0120) (0.0210) 
Layoffs, t − 3 0.012 0.011 0.025** −0.0074 0.018 0.018 
 (0.0110) (0.0110) (0.0110) (0.0330) (0.0130) (0.0210) 
Total effect 0.0334 0.041 0.0386 −0.0633 0.034 0.0499 
 (0.0188) (0.0187) (0.0164) (0.0688) (0.0265) (0.0439) 
Y-mean 1,442.9 729.6 945.5 355.9 423.9 486.7 
Observations 4,783 4,783 4,785 2,005 4,656 3,773 
R2 0.98 0.98 0.98 0.91 0.97 0.95 
Year fixed effects 
CZ fixed effects 
CZ Trends 

Notes: Outcome variables are listed at the top of each column, and are the log counts of the corresponding outcome. Estimates are from equation 1. Panel A shows estimates for public community colleges, and panel B shows estimates for for-profit schools. All regressions include year and commuting zone (CZ) fixed effects, commuting zone specific trends, and demographic controls. Regressions are weighted by commuting zone population. Standard errors are clustered on commuting zone. AA/AS = Associate of Arts/Associate of Science.

*p < 0.10; **p < 0.05; ***p < 0.01.

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