MIT Press

Table 5.

Probability that a random ERC-GFIS or MIT paper is highly cited, calculated from the lognormal distribution of citations and from the e_p index; and MIT/ERC-GFIS probability ratio. The top 0.01 percentile was fixed for the e_p index method; for lognormal calculations, the number of citations was arbitrarily selected as described in the text

Year	Lognormal ERC-GFIS		Lognormal MIT		Lognormal probability			e_p probability top 0.01 percentile		MIT/ERC-GFIS Prob. ratio
Year	μ	σ	μ	σ	Citations	ERC-GFIS	MIT	ERC-GFIS	MIT	e_p	Lognor.
*TECH*
2011	3.458	1.196	3.420	1.339	1000	0.00195	0.00461	0.00051	0.00163	3.2	2.4
2012	3.240	1.118	3.412	1.191	850	0.00086	0.00257	0.00031	0.00084	2.7	3.0
2013	3.138	1.129	3.250	1.203	700	0.00126	0.00304	0.00043	0.00184	4.3	2.4
2014	2.922	1.062	3.028	1.196	500	0.00097	0.00385	0.00017	0.00187	10.7	4.0
*BIO-MED*
2011	3.755	1.030	3.786	1.248	1000	0.00110	0.00617	0.00107	0.00300	2.8	5.6
2012	3.398	0.934	3.592	1.212	850	0.00017	0.00463	0.00034	0.00555	16.2	27.1
2013	3.325	1.068	3.566	1.290	700	0.00126	0.01036	0.00078	0.00516	6.6	8.3
2014	3.081	0.954	3.491	1.262	500	0.00051	0.01543	0.00071	0.01321	18.7	30.1

Year	Lognormal ERC-GFIS		Lognormal MIT		Lognormal probability			e_p probability top 0.01 percentile		MIT/ERC-GFIS Prob. ratio
Year	μ	σ	μ	σ	Citations	ERC-GFIS	MIT	ERC-GFIS	MIT	e_p	Lognor.
*TECH*
2011	3.458	1.196	3.420	1.339	1000	0.00195	0.00461	0.00051	0.00163	3.2	2.4
2012	3.240	1.118	3.412	1.191	850	0.00086	0.00257	0.00031	0.00084	2.7	3.0
2013	3.138	1.129	3.250	1.203	700	0.00126	0.00304	0.00043	0.00184	4.3	2.4
2014	2.922	1.062	3.028	1.196	500	0.00097	0.00385	0.00017	0.00187	10.7	4.0
*BIO-MED*
2011	3.755	1.030	3.786	1.248	1000	0.00110	0.00617	0.00107	0.00300	2.8	5.6
2012	3.398	0.934	3.592	1.212	850	0.00017	0.00463	0.00034	0.00555	16.2	27.1
2013	3.325	1.068	3.566	1.290	700	0.00126	0.01036	0.00078	0.00516	6.6	8.3
2014	3.081	0.954	3.491	1.262	500	0.00051	0.01543	0.00071	0.01321	18.7	30.1

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