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Table 4.
Structural Change and Urbanization
Pre-SovietSovietPost-Soviet
Urbanization RateFactories per 1,000 People, 1868Log Production per Worker, 1868Road DensityGULAGLog Population Density, 2000Log Light Density, 2008
18631913
(1)(2)(3)(4)(5)(6)(7)(8)
Serfs % (1858) −15.559*** −15.618*** −50.056 −0.651* −0.009*** −0.296** −1.001*** −0.820*** 
 (5.051) (5.524) (34.049) (0.338) (0.003) (0.124) (0.339) (0.295) 
Flexible controls ✓ ✓ ✓ ✓ ✓ ✓ ✓ ✓ 
Distances: City and provincial capital ✓ ✓ ✓ ✓ ✓ ✓ ✓ ✓ 
Fixed effects Province Province Province Province Province Province Province Province 
Observations 483 490 483 434 490 490 490 490 
R2 0.39 0.39 0.35 0.33 0.54 0.40 0.64 0.57 
Number of clusters 50 50 50 50 50 50 50 50 
δ for β=0 5.544 4.818 4.400 5.786 32.208 2.376 19.789 17.248 
Lower-bound estimates −14.851 −14.146 −49.582 −0.652 −0.010 −0.243 −1.094 −0.888 
Conley S.E. 300 km         
Serfs % (1858) [4.828]*** [5.049]*** [33.099] [0.264]** [0.003]*** [0.136]** [0.350]*** [0.303]*** 
Pre-SovietSovietPost-Soviet
Urbanization RateFactories per 1,000 People, 1868Log Production per Worker, 1868Road DensityGULAGLog Population Density, 2000Log Light Density, 2008
18631913
(1)(2)(3)(4)(5)(6)(7)(8)
Serfs % (1858) −15.559*** −15.618*** −50.056 −0.651* −0.009*** −0.296** −1.001*** −0.820*** 
 (5.051) (5.524) (34.049) (0.338) (0.003) (0.124) (0.339) (0.295) 
Flexible controls ✓ ✓ ✓ ✓ ✓ ✓ ✓ ✓ 
Distances: City and provincial capital ✓ ✓ ✓ ✓ ✓ ✓ ✓ ✓ 
Fixed effects Province Province Province Province Province Province Province Province 
Observations 483 490 483 434 490 490 490 490 
R2 0.39 0.39 0.35 0.33 0.54 0.40 0.64 0.57 
Number of clusters 50 50 50 50 50 50 50 50 
δ for β=0 5.544 4.818 4.400 5.786 32.208 2.376 19.789 17.248 
Lower-bound estimates −14.851 −14.146 −49.582 −0.652 −0.010 −0.243 −1.094 −0.888 
Conley S.E. 300 km         
Serfs % (1858) [4.828]*** [5.049]*** [33.099] [0.264]** [0.003]*** [0.136]** [0.350]*** [0.303]*** 

The unit of observation is a district. Flexible controls include eight dummies for cereal suitability and four dummies for quartiles of growing season temperature, growing-season precipitation, the share of podzol soil, and river density, as well as linear controls of latitude and longitude of the district, the area covered by forest, ruggedness, the distance to the coast, and the distance to Moscow. Distances are the distance to the nearest city in 1600 and the distance to the provincial capital. The restricted model used to compute δ and the lower-bound estimates controls for province fixed effects. Standard errors clustered at the province in parentheses. *p<0.10, **p<0.05, and ***p<0.01.

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