MIT Press

Table 4.

Structural Change and Urbanization

	Pre-Soviet				Soviet		Post-Soviet
	Urbanization Rate		Factories per 1,000 People, 1868	Log Production per Worker, 1868	Road Density	GULAG	Log Population Density, 2000	Log Light Density, 2008
	1863	1913

	(1)	(2)	(3)	(4)	(5)	(6)	(7)	(8)
Serfs % (1858)	−15.559^***	−15.618^***	−50.056	−0.651^*	−0.009^***	−0.296^**	−1.001^***	−0.820^***
	(5.051)	(5.524)	(34.049)	(0.338)	(0.003)	(0.124)	(0.339)	(0.295)
Flexible controls	✓	✓	✓	✓	✓	✓	✓	✓
Distances: City and provincial capital	✓	✓	✓	✓	✓	✓	✓	✓
Fixed effects	Province	Province	Province	Province	Province	Province	Province	Province
Observations	483	490	483	434	490	490	490	490
$R^{2}$	0.39	0.39	0.35	0.33	0.54	0.40	0.64	0.57
Number of clusters	50	50	50	50	50	50	50	50
$δ$ for $β = 0$	5.544	4.818	4.400	5.786	32.208	2.376	19.789	17.248
Lower-bound estimates	−14.851	−14.146	−49.582	−0.652	−0.010	−0.243	−1.094	−0.888
Conley S.E. 300 km
Serfs % (1858)	[4.828]^***	[5.049]^***	[33.099]	[0.264]^**	[0.003]^***	[0.136]^**	[0.350]^***	[0.303]^***

	Pre-Soviet				Soviet		Post-Soviet
	Urbanization Rate		Factories per 1,000 People, 1868	Log Production per Worker, 1868	Road Density	GULAG	Log Population Density, 2000	Log Light Density, 2008
	1863	1913

	(1)	(2)	(3)	(4)	(5)	(6)	(7)	(8)
Serfs % (1858)	−15.559^***	−15.618^***	−50.056	−0.651^*	−0.009^***	−0.296^**	−1.001^***	−0.820^***
	(5.051)	(5.524)	(34.049)	(0.338)	(0.003)	(0.124)	(0.339)	(0.295)
Flexible controls	✓	✓	✓	✓	✓	✓	✓	✓
Distances: City and provincial capital	✓	✓	✓	✓	✓	✓	✓	✓
Fixed effects	Province	Province	Province	Province	Province	Province	Province	Province
Observations	483	490	483	434	490	490	490	490
$R^{2}$	0.39	0.39	0.35	0.33	0.54	0.40	0.64	0.57
Number of clusters	50	50	50	50	50	50	50	50
$δ$ for $β = 0$	5.544	4.818	4.400	5.786	32.208	2.376	19.789	17.248
Lower-bound estimates	−14.851	−14.146	−49.582	−0.652	−0.010	−0.243	−1.094	−0.888
Conley S.E. 300 km
Serfs % (1858)	[4.828]^***	[5.049]^***	[33.099]	[0.264]^**	[0.003]^***	[0.136]^**	[0.350]^***	[0.303]^***

The unit of observation is a district. Flexible controls include eight dummies for cereal suitability and four dummies for quartiles of growing season temperature, growing-season precipitation, the share of podzol soil, and river density, as well as linear controls of latitude and longitude of the district, the area covered by forest, ruggedness, the distance to the coast, and the distance to Moscow. Distances are the distance to the nearest city in 1600 and the distance to the provincial capital. The restricted model used to compute $δ$ and the lower-bound estimates controls for province fixed effects. Standard errors clustered at the province in parentheses. $^{*}$ $p < 0.10$ ⁠, ^** $p < 0.05$ ⁠, and ^*** $p < 0.01$ ⁠.

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