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Table 3. 

Moving In and Out of Poverty

IFLS Transition Matrices
GroupPoorVulnerableAspiring Middle ClassMiddle Class
1. IFLS I–II, 1993–1997     
Poor 39.9 30.3 25.7 4.2 
Vulnerable 18 29 44 
Aspiring middle class 8.6 17.4 53.5 20.5 
Middle class 8.4 41.8 47.9 
2. IFLS II–III, 1997–2000     
Poor 44.8 29.4 23.3 2.5 
Vulnerable 25.2 30.3 39.8 4.7 
Aspiring middle class 10.8 19.9 54.3 15 
Middle class 4.2 7.4 44 44.4 
3. IFLS III–IV, 2000–2007     
Poor 34.8 31.1 29.6 4.5 
Vulnerable 19.7 28.5 45.6 6.2 
Aspiring middle class 20.4 53.8 17.8 
Middle class 2.6 7.6 47.1 42.6 
4. IFLS IV–V, 2007–2014     
Poor 30.4 28.1 36 5.5 
Vulnerable 16.7 20 46.1 10.2 
Aspiring middle class 6.6 15.4 54.9 23.2 
Middle class 2.5 7.7 37.9 51.9 
5. IFLS I–V, 1993–2014     
Poor 23.7 23.9 42.1 10.4 
Vulnerable 15.1 21.8 47.2 15.8 
Aspiring middle class 7.7 17.7 51 23.6 
Middle class 3.8 9.3 43.2 43.7 
IFLS Transition Matrices
GroupPoorVulnerableAspiring Middle ClassMiddle Class
1. IFLS I–II, 1993–1997     
Poor 39.9 30.3 25.7 4.2 
Vulnerable 18 29 44 
Aspiring middle class 8.6 17.4 53.5 20.5 
Middle class 8.4 41.8 47.9 
2. IFLS II–III, 1997–2000     
Poor 44.8 29.4 23.3 2.5 
Vulnerable 25.2 30.3 39.8 4.7 
Aspiring middle class 10.8 19.9 54.3 15 
Middle class 4.2 7.4 44 44.4 
3. IFLS III–IV, 2000–2007     
Poor 34.8 31.1 29.6 4.5 
Vulnerable 19.7 28.5 45.6 6.2 
Aspiring middle class 20.4 53.8 17.8 
Middle class 2.6 7.6 47.1 42.6 
4. IFLS IV–V, 2007–2014     
Poor 30.4 28.1 36 5.5 
Vulnerable 16.7 20 46.1 10.2 
Aspiring middle class 6.6 15.4 54.9 23.2 
Middle class 2.5 7.7 37.9 51.9 
5. IFLS I–V, 1993–2014     
Poor 23.7 23.9 42.1 10.4 
Vulnerable 15.1 21.8 47.2 15.8 
Aspiring middle class 7.7 17.7 51 23.6 
Middle class 3.8 9.3 43.2 43.7 

IFLS = Indonesian Family Life Survey.

Source: World Bank. 2018b. Revisiting the Distributional Impact of Fiscal Policy in Indonesia—Who Benefits, Who Pays? Unpublished paper.

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