There may be even more scope for seasonal work in East and Southeast Asia in the future. The next 30 years will see a large decline in the working-age population in these regions, which can be expected to impact seasonal labor-intensive activities. The working-age population (15–64 years) for Asian Development Bank member economies in East and Southeast Asia is forecast to decline by 150 million between 2015 and 2050 (Table 4).18 The largest source of decline will be in the People's Republic of China, where the working-age population will fall by 200 million from 2015 to 2050. There will also be large declines in Japan; Thailand; the Republic of Korea; and Taipei,China. While Indonesia and the Philippines are forecast to each add about 40 million and 36 million people, respectively to their working-age population during the review period—and Myanmar, Malaysia, Viet Nam, and Cambodia between 4 and 8 million each—the net effect will still be a decline that is equivalent to almost 10% of the 2015 working-age population in East and Southeast Asia. Most countries in the Pacific are too small and slow-growing to help supply this future labor deficit, but scope exists from the rapidly growing populations of the Melanesian countries and Timor-Leste. Between 2015 and 2050, these five countries are forecast to add 5.7 million people of working age: 4.4 million in Papua New Guinea, 0.8 million in Timor-Leste, 0.4 million in Solomon Islands, 0.1 million in Vanuatu, and no increase in Fiji.19
Forecast Changes in Working-Age Populations in Asia and the Pacific
. | Working-Age Population (Ages 15–64) in Millions . | |||
---|---|---|---|---|
Economies . | 2015 . | 2050 . | Absolute Change . | % Change . |
East and Southeast Asia | 1,581.6 | 1,433.6 | −148.0 | −9.4% |
China, People's Republic of | 1,014.8 | 814.9 | −199.9 | −19.7% |
Japan | 78.1 | 55.6 | −22.5 | −28.8% |
Thailand | 49.1 | 37.9 | −11.2 | −22.8% |
Korea, Republic of | 37.0 | 26.8 | −10.2 | −27.6% |
Taipei,China | 17.4 | 12.3 | −5.1 | −29.3% |
Lao People's Democratic Republic | 4.2 | 6.3 | 2.1 | 50.0% |
Cambodia | 10.0 | 14.5 | 4.5 | 45.0% |
Viet Nam | 65.7 | 70.6 | 4.9 | 7.5% |
Malaysia | 21.3 | 27.9 | 6.6 | 31.0% |
Myanmar | 35.0 | 42.3 | 7.3 | 20.9% |
Philippines | 64.3 | 100.3 | 36.0 | 56.0% |
Indonesia | 173.1 | 213.3 | 40.2 | 23.2% |
Australasia | 18.8 | 23.5 | 4.7 | 25.0% |
Australia | 15.8 | 20.1 | 4.3 | 27.2% |
New Zealand | 3.0 | 3.4 | 0.4 | 13.3% |
Melanesia and Timor-Leste | 6.5 | 12.2 | 5.7 | 87.7% |
Fiji | 0.6 | 0.6 | 0.0 | 0.0% |
Vanuatu | 0.2 | 0.3 | 0.1 | 50.0% |
Solomon Islands | 0.3 | 0.7 | 0.4 | 133.3% |
Timor-Leste | 0.7 | 1.5 | 0.8 | 114.3% |
Papua New Guinea | 4.7 | 9.1 | 4.4 | 93.6% |
. | Working-Age Population (Ages 15–64) in Millions . | |||
---|---|---|---|---|
Economies . | 2015 . | 2050 . | Absolute Change . | % Change . |
East and Southeast Asia | 1,581.6 | 1,433.6 | −148.0 | −9.4% |
China, People's Republic of | 1,014.8 | 814.9 | −199.9 | −19.7% |
Japan | 78.1 | 55.6 | −22.5 | −28.8% |
Thailand | 49.1 | 37.9 | −11.2 | −22.8% |
Korea, Republic of | 37.0 | 26.8 | −10.2 | −27.6% |
Taipei,China | 17.4 | 12.3 | −5.1 | −29.3% |
Lao People's Democratic Republic | 4.2 | 6.3 | 2.1 | 50.0% |
Cambodia | 10.0 | 14.5 | 4.5 | 45.0% |
Viet Nam | 65.7 | 70.6 | 4.9 | 7.5% |
Malaysia | 21.3 | 27.9 | 6.6 | 31.0% |
Myanmar | 35.0 | 42.3 | 7.3 | 20.9% |
Philippines | 64.3 | 100.3 | 36.0 | 56.0% |
Indonesia | 173.1 | 213.3 | 40.2 | 23.2% |
Australasia | 18.8 | 23.5 | 4.7 | 25.0% |
Australia | 15.8 | 20.1 | 4.3 | 27.2% |
New Zealand | 3.0 | 3.4 | 0.4 | 13.3% |
Melanesia and Timor-Leste | 6.5 | 12.2 | 5.7 | 87.7% |
Fiji | 0.6 | 0.6 | 0.0 | 0.0% |
Vanuatu | 0.2 | 0.3 | 0.1 | 50.0% |
Solomon Islands | 0.3 | 0.7 | 0.4 | 133.3% |
Timor-Leste | 0.7 | 1.5 | 0.8 | 114.3% |
Papua New Guinea | 4.7 | 9.1 | 4.4 | 93.6% |
Note: Economies are listed in ascending order of their absolute change in working-age population from 2015 to 2050. Only countries in East and Southeast Asia with absolute changes exceeding 1 million are listed, but the regional total includes all countries.
Source: Authors' calculations from United Nations World Population Prospects: The 2017 Revision (medium variant forecasts).