The McKibbin-Fernando model predicts that for each scenario, there is a V-shape recovery apart from scenario 7, where COVID-19 recurs indefinitely. Table 5 summarizes the resulting GDP loss for each country under the seven scenarios.

Table 5.

GDP loss in 2020 (% deviation from the baseline)

Country/regionS01S02S03S04S05S06S07
Argentina −0.2 −0.3 −0.5 −1.6 −3.5 −6 −1.2 
Australia −0.3 −0.4 −0.7 −2.1 −4.6 −7.9 −2 
Brazil −0.3 −0.3 −0.5 −2.1 −4.7 −8 −1.9 
Canada −0.2 −0.2 −0.4 −1.8 −4.1 −7.1 −1.6 
China −0.4 −1.9 −6 −1.6 −3.6 −6.2 −2.2 
France −0.2 −0.3 −0.3 −2 −4.6 −8 −1.5 
Germany −0.2 −0.3 −0.5 −2.2 −5 −8.7 −1.7 
India −0.2 −0.2 −0.4 −1.4 −3.1 −5.3 −1.3 
Indonesia −0.2 −0.2 −0.3 −1.3 −2.8 −4.7 −1.3 
Italy −0.2 −0.3 −0.4 −2.1 −4.8 −8.3 −2.2 
Japan −0.3 −0.4 −0.5 −2.5 −5.7 −9.9 −2 
Mexico −0.1 −0.1 −0.1 −0.9 −2.2 −3.8 −0.9 
Other Asia −0.1 −0.2 −0.4 −1.6 −3.6 −6.3 −1.5 
Other oil producing countries −0.2 −0.2 −0.4 −1.4 −3.2 −5.5 −1.3 
Republic of Korea −0.1 −0.2 −0.3 −1.4 −3.3 −5.8 −1.3 
Rest of Euro Zone −0.2 −0.2 −0.4 −2.1 −4.8 −8.4 −1.9 
Rest of OECD −0.3 −0.3 −0.5 −2 −4.4 −7.7 −1.8 
Rest of the world −0.2 −0.2 −0.3 −1.5 −3.5 −5.9 −1.5 
Russia −0.2 −0.3 −0.5 −2 −4.6 −8 −1.9 
Saudi Arabia −0.2 −0.2 −0.3 −0.7 −1.4 −2.4 −1.3 
South Africa −0.2 −0.2 −0.4 −1.8 −4 −7 −1.5 
Turkey −0.1 −0.2 −0.2 −1.4 −3.2 −5.5 −1.2 
United Kingdom −0.2 −0.2 −0.3 −1.5 −3.5 −6 −1.2 
United States of America −0.1 −0.1 −0.2 −2 −4.8 −8.4 −1.5 
Country/regionS01S02S03S04S05S06S07
Argentina −0.2 −0.3 −0.5 −1.6 −3.5 −6 −1.2 
Australia −0.3 −0.4 −0.7 −2.1 −4.6 −7.9 −2 
Brazil −0.3 −0.3 −0.5 −2.1 −4.7 −8 −1.9 
Canada −0.2 −0.2 −0.4 −1.8 −4.1 −7.1 −1.6 
China −0.4 −1.9 −6 −1.6 −3.6 −6.2 −2.2 
France −0.2 −0.3 −0.3 −2 −4.6 −8 −1.5 
Germany −0.2 −0.3 −0.5 −2.2 −5 −8.7 −1.7 
India −0.2 −0.2 −0.4 −1.4 −3.1 −5.3 −1.3 
Indonesia −0.2 −0.2 −0.3 −1.3 −2.8 −4.7 −1.3 
Italy −0.2 −0.3 −0.4 −2.1 −4.8 −8.3 −2.2 
Japan −0.3 −0.4 −0.5 −2.5 −5.7 −9.9 −2 
Mexico −0.1 −0.1 −0.1 −0.9 −2.2 −3.8 −0.9 
Other Asia −0.1 −0.2 −0.4 −1.6 −3.6 −6.3 −1.5 
Other oil producing countries −0.2 −0.2 −0.4 −1.4 −3.2 −5.5 −1.3 
Republic of Korea −0.1 −0.2 −0.3 −1.4 −3.3 −5.8 −1.3 
Rest of Euro Zone −0.2 −0.2 −0.4 −2.1 −4.8 −8.4 −1.9 
Rest of OECD −0.3 −0.3 −0.5 −2 −4.4 −7.7 −1.8 
Rest of the world −0.2 −0.2 −0.3 −1.5 −3.5 −5.9 −1.5 
Russia −0.2 −0.3 −0.5 −2 −4.6 −8 −1.9 
Saudi Arabia −0.2 −0.2 −0.3 −0.7 −1.4 −2.4 −1.3 
South Africa −0.2 −0.2 −0.4 −1.8 −4 −7 −1.5 
Turkey −0.1 −0.2 −0.2 −1.4 −3.2 −5.5 −1.2 
United Kingdom −0.2 −0.2 −0.3 −1.5 −3.5 −6 −1.2 
United States of America −0.1 −0.1 −0.2 −2 −4.8 −8.4 −1.5 

Source: McKibbin and Fernando, this issue.

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