The results of estimating equation (2) are reported in table 1; for concision, only the coefficient $β1$ is reported. (The full set of coefficients is reported in tables A7 through A9 in the appendix, and discussed in section A1.3 in the appendix.) To analyze the magnitude of the effects, we compare a county at the median level of uncertainty ex ante to a county characterized by the minimum level of uncertainty observed, a difference equal to 1 SD; accordingly, the coefficients reported in the panel can be interpreted directly as the effect in log points. In panel A, we observe that this increase would lead to an increase in exports of approximately .20 log points in the post–2001 period. There is also evidence of an increase in secondary, tertiary, total, and per capita GDP of around .04 log points. No significant effects are observed for primary output. While the estimated effect for total GDP is larger than the effect for its subcomponents, the sample is also much larger for this variable. Accordingly, the observed pattern suggests that counties that do not report secondary and tertiary GDP in general show a larger response to the shock of interest.

Table 1.

Primary Results

(1)(2)(3)(4)(5)(6)
A: Exports and GDP
Exports Primary Secondary Tertiary GDP Per capita
Post $×$ NTR gap .197 .005 .033 .025 .040 .030
(.081)** (.018) (.015)** (.014)* (.012)*** (.016)*
Observations 5,158 14,722 15,688 15,375 29,782 26,339
Number of counties 1,017 1,496 1,496 1,496 1,688 1,609
B: Employment
Primary Agri. Secondary Tertiary Total emp. Total pop.
Post $×$ NTR gap −.072 −.069 .257 .096 .0004 .013
(.050) (.027)** (.102)** (.116) (.012) (.006)**
Observations 3,214 21,532 4,523 4,659 19,972 28,867
Number of counties 354 1,619 1,235 1,235 1,440 1,642
C: Agricultural Investment
Sown area Agri. machine Grain Cash Grain yield
Post $×$ NTR gap −.037 −.085 −.126 −.053 −.042
(.020)* (.024)*** (.038)*** (.025)** (.022)*
Observations 8,322 28,149 28,161 26,818 7,168
Number of counties 989 1,637 1,627 1,574 885
(1)(2)(3)(4)(5)(6)
A: Exports and GDP
Exports Primary Secondary Tertiary GDP Per capita
Post $×$ NTR gap .197 .005 .033 .025 .040 .030
(.081)** (.018) (.015)** (.014)* (.012)*** (.016)*
Observations 5,158 14,722 15,688 15,375 29,782 26,339
Number of counties 1,017 1,496 1,496 1,496 1,688 1,609
B: Employment
Primary Agri. Secondary Tertiary Total emp. Total pop.
Post $×$ NTR gap −.072 −.069 .257 .096 .0004 .013
(.050) (.027)** (.102)** (.116) (.012) (.006)**
Observations 3,214 21,532 4,523 4,659 19,972 28,867
Number of counties 354 1,619 1,235 1,235 1,440 1,642
C: Agricultural Investment
Sown area Agri. machine Grain Cash Grain yield
Post $×$ NTR gap −.037 −.085 −.126 −.053 −.042
(.020)* (.024)*** (.038)*** (.025)** (.022)*
Observations 8,322 28,149 28,161 26,818 7,168
Number of counties 989 1,637 1,627 1,574 885

The primary independent variable is the interaction of a post-2001 dummy and the standardized county NTR gap. The specification also includes a number of control variables: an interaction of the post dummy and a dummy for high contract intensity, SOE quantile-year interactions, the industry-weighted MFA quota fill rate, the industry-weighted national tariff rate, the industry-weighted percentage of firms licensed to export, and the industry-weighted time-varying NTR rate. Province-year and county fixed effects are included, and the province-year fixed effects are interacted with an urban dummy. Standard errors are clustered by county, and the regressions are weighted with respect to baseline employment. Significant at ***1%, **5%, and *10%.

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