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In table 3, we recalculate the NTR gap using a number of alternate strategies to evaluate the robustness of these results, focusing on exports and GDP. In panel A, we construct the NTR gap utilizing the employment data reported in the 2000 census to construct employment weights rather than utilizing the 1990 weights. The results are generally comparable, although the estimated coefficients for secondary, GDP, and per capita GDP are slightly larger. The use of 2000 employment weights introduces two potential sources of bias: areas already industrialized by 2000 will generally have larger NTR gaps, while industrialized areas that are more strategic in investing in industries characterized by less tariff uncertainty may have lower NTR gaps. The latter phenomenon will lead to upward bias in the estimates of the effect of uncertainty reduction, and this upward bias does seem to be evident in these specifications.12

Table 3.

Robustness Checks

ExportsPrimarySecondaryTertiaryGDPPer capita
(1)(2)(3)(4)(5)(6)
A: NTR gaps estimated using 2000 employment weights 
Post × NTR gap .111 −.019 .041 .039 .040 .036 
 (.051)** (.012) (.013)*** (.011)*** (.010)*** (.011)*** 
Observations 5,158 14,690 15,646 15,340 29,740 26,318 
B: NTR gaps estimated assigning nontradables zero weights 
Post × NTR gap .088 −.056 .003 −.009 .024 .020 
 (.049)* (.019)*** (.014) (.010) (.009)** (.009)** 
Observations 5,158 14,722 15,688 15,375 29,782 26,347 
C: Main specification controlling for employment pre-trends 
Post × NTR gap .196 −.011 .042 .021 .033 .020 
 (.082)** (.018) (.016)*** (.013) (.013)** (.018) 
Observations 5,158 14,706 15,672 15,359 29,766 26,333 
ExportsPrimarySecondaryTertiaryGDPPer capita
(1)(2)(3)(4)(5)(6)
A: NTR gaps estimated using 2000 employment weights 
Post × NTR gap .111 −.019 .041 .039 .040 .036 
 (.051)** (.012) (.013)*** (.011)*** (.010)*** (.011)*** 
Observations 5,158 14,690 15,646 15,340 29,740 26,318 
B: NTR gaps estimated assigning nontradables zero weights 
Post × NTR gap .088 −.056 .003 −.009 .024 .020 
 (.049)* (.019)*** (.014) (.010) (.009)** (.009)** 
Observations 5,158 14,722 15,688 15,375 29,782 26,347 
C: Main specification controlling for employment pre-trends 
Post × NTR gap .196 −.011 .042 .021 .033 .020 
 (.082)** (.018) (.016)*** (.013) (.013)** (.018) 
Observations 5,158 14,706 15,672 15,359 29,766 26,333 

The base specification and the dependent variables are identical to those described in table 1. In panel A, the NTR gap is estimated using 2000 census employment weights. In panel B, the NTR gap is estimated using 1990 census employment weights and assigning the nontradable sector a 0 weight. In panel C, the long-difference in primary and nonprimary employment between 1990 and 2000 interacted with a post dummy is included. Significant at ***1%, **5%, and *10%.

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