MIT Press

Fernald regularly publishes revised estimates of adjusted TFP based on new data and methodological changes.^¹³ Panel a of table 1 reports² key statistics for the vintages of December 2007, December 2013, May 2014, and May 2016, all over the same sample period 1947:3 to 2007:3.^¹⁴ The means and standard deviations are similar across vintages. However, there is a marked change in business cycle comovement from the 2014 vintage onward. The correlation coefficient between the 2007 vintage and post-2013 vintages of adjusted TFP growth is less than 0.6. Furthermore, while the 2007 and 2013 vintages of adjusted TFP growth are positively correlated with output growth and uncorrelated with total hours growth, the 2014 and 2016 vintages of adjusted TFP growth are uncorrelated with output growth and negatively correlated with total hours growth.^¹⁵

Table 1.

Moments of TFP Growth and Utilization for Different Vintages

	A. Adjusted TFP Growth
	$Δ ln {TFP}_{t}^{u, 07}$	$Δ ln {TFP}_{t}^{u, 13}$	$Δ ln {TFP}_{t}^{u, 14}$	$Δ ln {TFP}_{t}^{u, 16}$
Mean	1.49	1.41	1.42	1.42
Standard deviation	3.41	3.30	3.79	3.46
Correlation with $Δ ln {TFP}_{t}^{u, 07}$	1.00	0.85	0.56	0.58
Correlation with $Δ ln Y_{t}$	0.53	0.38	0.18	0.07
Correlation with $Δ ln L_{t}$	−0.01	−0.06	−0.24	−0.35
	B. Unadjusted TFP Growth
	$Δ ln {TFP}_{t}^{07}$	$Δ ln {TFP}_{t}^{13}$	$Δ ln {TFP}_{t}^{14}$	$Δ ln {TFP}_{t}^{16}$
Mean	1.42	1.37	1.37	1.39
Standard deviation	3.75	3.55	3.55	3.55
Correlation with $Δ ln {TFP}_{t}^{u, 07}$	1.00	0.92	0.92	0.93
	C. Utilization Growth
	$Δ ln {\hat{u}}_{t}^{07}$	$Δ ln {\hat{u}}_{t}^{13}$	$Δ ln {\hat{u}}_{t}^{14}$	$Δ ln {\hat{u}}_{t}^{16}$
Mean	−0.08	−0.04	−0.05	−0.03
Standard deviation	2.34	2.94	3.75	3.76
Correlation with $Δ ln {\hat{u}}_{t}^{07}$	1.00	0.94	0.58	0.65

	A. Adjusted TFP Growth
	$Δ ln {TFP}_{t}^{u, 07}$	$Δ ln {TFP}_{t}^{u, 13}$	$Δ ln {TFP}_{t}^{u, 14}$	$Δ ln {TFP}_{t}^{u, 16}$
Mean	1.49	1.41	1.42	1.42
Standard deviation	3.41	3.30	3.79	3.46
Correlation with $Δ ln {TFP}_{t}^{u, 07}$	1.00	0.85	0.56	0.58
Correlation with $Δ ln Y_{t}$	0.53	0.38	0.18	0.07
Correlation with $Δ ln L_{t}$	−0.01	−0.06	−0.24	−0.35
	B. Unadjusted TFP Growth
	$Δ ln {TFP}_{t}^{07}$	$Δ ln {TFP}_{t}^{13}$	$Δ ln {TFP}_{t}^{14}$	$Δ ln {TFP}_{t}^{16}$
Mean	1.42	1.37	1.37	1.39
Standard deviation	3.75	3.55	3.55	3.55
Correlation with $Δ ln {TFP}_{t}^{u, 07}$	1.00	0.92	0.92	0.93
	C. Utilization Growth
	$Δ ln {\hat{u}}_{t}^{07}$	$Δ ln {\hat{u}}_{t}^{13}$	$Δ ln {\hat{u}}_{t}^{14}$	$Δ ln {\hat{u}}_{t}^{16}$
Mean	−0.08	−0.04	−0.05	−0.03
Standard deviation	2.34	2.94	3.75	3.76
Correlation with $Δ ln {\hat{u}}_{t}^{07}$	1.00	0.94	0.58	0.65

$Δ ln {TFP}_{t}^{u, j}$ is the quarterly log change expressed in annualized percentage points of Fernald's adjusted TFP series for vintages $j = 07$ ⁠, 13, 14, or 16; $Δ ln {TFP}_{t}^{j}$ is unadjusted TFP growth by vintage; and $Δ ln {\hat{u}}_{t}^{j}$ is the growth rate of Fernald's utilization series by vintage. $Y_{t}$ is real GDP and $H_{t}$ is total hours worked in the nonfarm business sector; these are from the NIPA tables and are expressed as quarterly log changes. The sample period for each of the statistics is 1947q3 to 2007q3.

View Large

This Feature Is Available To Subscribers Only