2. Variable multidecadal growth rates. As is evident for the eight countries in figure 2 and as can also be seen by curves for individual countries in figure 1, growth rates for individual countries have substantial long-run variability. Pritchett (2000) characterized this variability as episodic growth, which led Hausmann, Pritchett, and Rodrik (2005), Jones and Olken (2008), and others to develop empirical models of discrete transitions, or breaks, across growth regimes. As seen in table 1a, this variability of long-run growth rates is evident in both developed economies (witness the long-run growth slowdown in the United States over the past two decades) and non-OECD countries.00
Selected Summary Statistics
a. Mean growth rates of GDP per capita over 30-year periods (annual percentage growth rates) . | ||||
---|---|---|---|---|
. | 1901–1930 . | 1931–1960 . | 1961–1990 . | 1991–2017 . |
United States | 1.4 | 2.2 | 2.5 | 1.5 |
OECD | 1.2 | 2.0 | 2.9 | 1.4 |
Non-OECD | 1.4 | 1.8 | 2.1 | 3.0 |
all | 1.3 | 1.9 | 2.1 | 1.9 |
a. Mean growth rates of GDP per capita over 30-year periods (annual percentage growth rates) . | ||||
---|---|---|---|---|
. | 1901–1930 . | 1931–1960 . | 1961–1990 . | 1991–2017 . |
United States | 1.4 | 2.2 | 2.5 | 1.5 |
OECD | 1.2 | 2.0 | 2.9 | 1.4 |
Non-OECD | 1.4 | 1.8 | 2.1 | 3.0 |
all | 1.3 | 1.9 | 2.1 | 1.9 |
b. Cross-sectional distribution of in selected years (logarithm of GDP per capita) . | ||||
---|---|---|---|---|
. | . | . | Cross-section Interquantile range: . | |
Average value of over . | median . | standard deviation . | 75%-25% . | 90%-10% . |
1950–1954 | 7.8 | 1.0 | 1.5 | 2.5 |
1971–1975 | 8.3 | 1.1 | 1.8 | 2.9 |
1992–1996 | 8.6 | 1.3 | 2.0 | 3.5 |
2013–2017 | 9.3 | 1.2 | 2.1 | 3.3 |
b. Cross-sectional distribution of in selected years (logarithm of GDP per capita) . | ||||
---|---|---|---|---|
. | . | . | Cross-section Interquantile range: . | |
Average value of over . | median . | standard deviation . | 75%-25% . | 90%-10% . |
1950–1954 | 7.8 | 1.0 | 1.5 | 2.5 |
1971–1975 | 8.3 | 1.1 | 1.8 | 2.9 |
1992–1996 | 8.6 | 1.3 | 2.0 | 3.5 |
2013–2017 | 9.3 | 1.2 | 2.1 | 3.3 |
c. Averages of over 29-year periods: Fraction of countries of moving from growth quartile (1960–1988) to quartile (1989–2017) . | |||||
---|---|---|---|---|---|
. | . | Quartile in 1989–2017 . | |||
. | . | 1 . | 2 . | 3 . | 4 . |
Quartile 1960–1988 | 1 | 0.79 | 0.21 | 0 | 0 |
2 | 0.21 | 0.68 | 0.11 | 0 | |
3 | 0 | 0.11 | 0.71 | 0.18 | |
4 | 0 | 0 | 0.18 | 0.82 |
c. Averages of over 29-year periods: Fraction of countries of moving from growth quartile (1960–1988) to quartile (1989–2017) . | |||||
---|---|---|---|---|---|
. | . | Quartile in 1989–2017 . | |||
. | . | 1 . | 2 . | 3 . | 4 . |
Quartile 1960–1988 | 1 | 0.79 | 0.21 | 0 | 0 |
2 | 0.21 | 0.68 | 0.11 | 0 | |
3 | 0 | 0.11 | 0.71 | 0.18 | |
4 | 0 | 0 | 0.18 | 0.82 |