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Table 3 summarizes results for various groupings of countries using end-of-sample populations to weight the country-specific per capita values. This weighting scheme suggests that global per capita income will rise by an annual rate of 2.0% during the next 100 years, resulting in a more than seven-fold increase in per capita GDP. The degree of uncertainty is, however, very wide, with a 67% prediction interval of 1.1% to 3.0% per year. The richer countries are predicted to grow more slowly than the poor countries: the 67% prediction interval for 100-year per capita GDP growth for non-OECD countries is essentially the same as that for OECD countries but shifted up by 0.4 percentage points. This pattern of faster growth for the poorer countries also can be seen in the country groupings used in the International Monetary Fund's World Economic Outlook (2020), where the median of the 100-year-ahead predictive distributions calls for an average annual growth rate of 2.6% for sub-Saharan Africa and 1.7% for the advanced economies.

Table 3.

Percentiles of Predictive Distributions for Average Growth over Next 50 and 100 Years: Population Weighted Average of Country Growth Rates, 2017

Percentiles: 50-year horizonPercentiles: 100-year horizon
0.170.500.840.170.500.84
Global factor (ft) 0.92 1.86 2.70 0.92 1.87 2.72 
Global aggregates 
All countries 1.03 2.05 3.00 1.06 2.04 2.96 
OECD 0.74 1.69 2.62 0.79 1.73 2.62 
Non-OECD 1.05 2.13 3.11 1.11 2.10 3.04 
Selected IMF-WEO groupings 
Advanced economies 0.69 1.64 2.57 0.74 1.68 2.58 
Euro area 0.65 1.68 2.66 0.74 1.72 2.64 
G7 0.69 1.65 2.61 0.75 1.69 2.60 
Emerging and developing economies 1.06 2.13 3.11 1.11 2.11 3.04 
Emerging and developing Asia 0.80 2.02 3.12 0.97 2.03 3.02 
ASEAN-5 0.90 1.98 3.03 1.00 2.01 2.97 
Emerging and developing Europe 0.65 1.79 2.87 0.78 1.80 2.75 
Latin America and Caribbean 0.99 2.04 2.99 1.03 2.03 2.93 
Middle East and Central Asia 1.15 2.17 3.13 1.19 2.15 3.06 
Sub-Saharan Africa 1.51 2.63 3.71 1.51 2.55 3.50 
Percentiles: 50-year horizonPercentiles: 100-year horizon
0.170.500.840.170.500.84
Global factor (ft) 0.92 1.86 2.70 0.92 1.87 2.72 
Global aggregates 
All countries 1.03 2.05 3.00 1.06 2.04 2.96 
OECD 0.74 1.69 2.62 0.79 1.73 2.62 
Non-OECD 1.05 2.13 3.11 1.11 2.10 3.04 
Selected IMF-WEO groupings 
Advanced economies 0.69 1.64 2.57 0.74 1.68 2.58 
Euro area 0.65 1.68 2.66 0.74 1.72 2.64 
G7 0.69 1.65 2.61 0.75 1.69 2.60 
Emerging and developing economies 1.06 2.13 3.11 1.11 2.11 3.04 
Emerging and developing Asia 0.80 2.02 3.12 0.97 2.03 3.02 
ASEAN-5 0.90 1.98 3.03 1.00 2.01 2.97 
Emerging and developing Europe 0.65 1.79 2.87 0.78 1.80 2.75 
Latin America and Caribbean 0.99 2.04 2.99 1.03 2.03 2.93 
Middle East and Central Asia 1.15 2.17 3.13 1.19 2.15 3.06 
Sub-Saharan Africa 1.51 2.63 3.71 1.51 2.55 3.50 

The country groups shown in the bottom panel are from the IMF's World Economic Outlook (2020).

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