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Panel A of table 3 presents ITT estimates representing the effect of a lottery offer on the number of credits earned by the end of ninth grade. The point estimate in column 3 indicates that lottery winners accumulated around 0.45 more course credits than lottery losers by the end of ninth grade. This translates into a 6 percent increase relative to the control group mean of 7.04 credits. This point estimate is nearly identical to the point estimates presented in columns 1 and 2, which come from specifications that exclude baseline student covariates and test scores, respectively. Panel B presents TOT results for the same credit accumulation outcome. The TOT estimate represents the effect of enrolling in StudentU on credits earned in ninth grade among the compliers. Due to high take-up rates, the TOT results are very similar to the ITT estimates.

Table 3.

The Effects of StudentU on Credits Earned in Early High School

All StudentsBaseline Achievement
LowHighp-value
(1)(2)(3)(4)(5)(6)
Panel A. ITT 
Won lottery 0.463*** 0.480*** 0.452*** 0.822*** 0.082 0.003 
 (0.159) (0.160) (0.161) (0.209) (0.191)  
Panel B. TOT 
Enrolled in SU 0.541*** 0.558*** 0.524*** 0.940*** 0.096 0.003 
 (0.183) (0.182) (0.181) (0.231) (0.218)  
Demographic controls No Yes Yes Yes Yes  
Baseline achievement No No Yes Yes Yes  
Control mean  7.04  6.68 7.45  
Observations  279  143 136  
All StudentsBaseline Achievement
LowHighp-value
(1)(2)(3)(4)(5)(6)
Panel A. ITT 
Won lottery 0.463*** 0.480*** 0.452*** 0.822*** 0.082 0.003 
 (0.159) (0.160) (0.161) (0.209) (0.191)  
Panel B. TOT 
Enrolled in SU 0.541*** 0.558*** 0.524*** 0.940*** 0.096 0.003 
 (0.183) (0.182) (0.181) (0.231) (0.218)  
Demographic controls No Yes Yes Yes Yes  
Baseline achievement No No Yes Yes Yes  
Control mean  7.04  6.68 7.45  
Observations  279  143 136  

Notes: The dependent variable is the number of credits earned at the end of ninth grade. The sample is composed of the 2012—14 StudentU cohorts (lottery winners and losers). Specifications with demographic controls include female, black, Hispanic, economically disadvantaged in fifth grade, age (at the beginning of fifth grade), charter enrollment in fifth grade, gifted in fifth grade, special education in fifth grade, and English learner in fifth grade. Specifications with baseline achievement controls include math achievement in fifth grade and reading achievement in fifth grade. Models estimated on the full sample and by separately baseline achievement include cohort fixed-effects and cohort fixed-effects interacted with student gender. Panel A reports intent-to-treat (ITT) estimates, and panel B reports treatment-on-the-treated (TOT) estimates. First-stage estimates are presented in online appendix table A6. Robust standard errors are reported in parentheses. SU = StudentU.

Asterisks denote statistical significance: *p < 0.10, **p < 0.05, ***p < 0.01.

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