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Panel A of table 4 presents ITT estimates representing the effect of a lottery offer on student grade point average at the end of ninth grade. The point estimates for the full sample in columns 1–3 are small in magnitude and statistically insignificant. Columns 4 and 5 present results from a specification in which lottery status is interacted with an index of baseline student achievement and once again reveal evidence of significant treatment heterogeneity. The point estimate for lottery winners with low baseline achievement is 0.370 weighted grade points and is statistically significant at the 0.05 level. In contrast, the point estimate for lottery winners with high baseline achievement is small, slightly negative, and statistically indistinguishable from zero. The p-value from a statistical test of the difference in these two coefficients in column 5 is 0.027, which allows me to once again reject the null hypothesis of equality. Panel B presents TOT estimates, which are again qualitatively similar.

Table 4.

The Effects of StudentU on Grade Point Average (GPA) in Early High School

All StudentsBaseline Achievement
LowHighp-value
(1)(2)(3)(4)(5)(6)
Panel A. ITT       
Won lottery 0.166 0.176 0.140 0.370*** −0.090 0.027 
 (0.141) (0.128) (0.120) (0.142) (0.171)  
Panel B. TOT       
Enrolled in SU 0.194 0.205 0.162 0.423*** −0.106 0.023 
 (0.161) (0.144) (0.135) (0.157) (0.195)  
Demographic controls No Yes Yes Yes Yes  
Baseline achievement No No Yes Yes Yes  
Control mean  2.81  2.31 3.37  
Observations  279  143 136  
All StudentsBaseline Achievement
LowHighp-value
(1)(2)(3)(4)(5)(6)
Panel A. ITT       
Won lottery 0.166 0.176 0.140 0.370*** −0.090 0.027 
 (0.141) (0.128) (0.120) (0.142) (0.171)  
Panel B. TOT       
Enrolled in SU 0.194 0.205 0.162 0.423*** −0.106 0.023 
 (0.161) (0.144) (0.135) (0.157) (0.195)  
Demographic controls No Yes Yes Yes Yes  
Baseline achievement No No Yes Yes Yes  
Control mean  2.81  2.31 3.37  
Observations  279  143 136  

Notes: The dependent variable is grade point average at the end of ninth grade. The sample is composed of the 2012—14 StudentU cohorts (lottery winners and losers). Specifications with demographic controls include female, black, Hispanic, economically disadvantaged in fifth grade, age (at the beginning of fifth grade), charter enrollment in fifth grade, gifted in fifth grade, special education in fifth grade, and English learner in fifth grade. Specifications with baseline achievement controls include math achievement in fifth grade and reading achievement in fifth grade. Models estimated on the full sample and by separately baseline achievement include cohort fixed-effects and cohort fixed-effects interacted with student gender. Panel A reports intent-to-treat (ITT) estimates, and panel B reports treatment-on-the-treated (TOT) estimates. First-stage estimates are presented in online appendix table A6. Robust standard errors are reported in parentheses. SU = StudentU.

Asterisks denote statistical significance: *p < 0.10, **p < 0.05, ***p < 0.01.

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