Panel A of table 5 presents estimates of the effect of a lottery offer on the probability of suspension during ninth grade. The point estimate for the full sample in column 3 indicates that lottery winners were around 10.3 percentage points less likely to be suspended during ninth grade than their lottery loser counterparts. In relative terms, this translates into a 47 percent reduction (control mean is 23.7). The point estimates in columns 4 and 5 reveal significant evidence of treatment effect heterogeneity on the basis of baseline achievement. The point estimate in column 4 reports a statistically significant 17.1 percentage point reduction in the likelihood of suspension in ninth grade among lottery winners with low baseline achievement. In contrast, column 4 reports a 3.6 percentage point reduction that is statistically insignificant. The p-value from a statistical test of the null hypothesis of equality is 0.092 (marginally significant). The results from the interacted model once again provide strong evidence to suggest that the mean impact in the full sample of lottery winners is driven by effects on the subgroup of students with low baseline achievement.

Table 5.

The Effects of StudentU on the Probability of Suspension in Early High School

All StudentsBaseline Achievement
LowHighp-value
(1)(2)(3)(4)(5)(6)
Panel A. ITT
Won lottery −0.099** −0.112** −0.103** −0.171*** −0.036 0.092
(0.047) (0.046) (0.046) (0.059) (0.063)
Panel B. TOT
Enrolled in SU −0.115** −0.130** −0.120** −0.196*** −0.042 0.087
(0.054) (0.052) (0.052) (0.065) (0.072)
Demographic controls No Yes Yes Yes Yes
Baseline achievement No No Yes Yes Yes
Control mean  .237  .306 .160
Observations  279  143 136
All StudentsBaseline Achievement
LowHighp-value
(1)(2)(3)(4)(5)(6)
Panel A. ITT
Won lottery −0.099** −0.112** −0.103** −0.171*** −0.036 0.092
(0.047) (0.046) (0.046) (0.059) (0.063)
Panel B. TOT
Enrolled in SU −0.115** −0.130** −0.120** −0.196*** −0.042 0.087
(0.054) (0.052) (0.052) (0.065) (0.072)
Demographic controls No Yes Yes Yes Yes
Baseline achievement No No Yes Yes Yes
Control mean  .237  .306 .160
Observations  279  143 136