Skip to Main Content

Panel A of table 5 presents estimates of the effect of a lottery offer on the probability of suspension during ninth grade. The point estimate for the full sample in column 3 indicates that lottery winners were around 10.3 percentage points less likely to be suspended during ninth grade than their lottery loser counterparts. In relative terms, this translates into a 47 percent reduction (control mean is 23.7). The point estimates in columns 4 and 5 reveal significant evidence of treatment effect heterogeneity on the basis of baseline achievement. The point estimate in column 4 reports a statistically significant 17.1 percentage point reduction in the likelihood of suspension in ninth grade among lottery winners with low baseline achievement. In contrast, column 4 reports a 3.6 percentage point reduction that is statistically insignificant. The p-value from a statistical test of the null hypothesis of equality is 0.092 (marginally significant). The results from the interacted model once again provide strong evidence to suggest that the mean impact in the full sample of lottery winners is driven by effects on the subgroup of students with low baseline achievement.

Table 5.

The Effects of StudentU on the Probability of Suspension in Early High School

All StudentsBaseline Achievement
LowHighp-value
(1)(2)(3)(4)(5)(6)
Panel A. ITT       
Won lottery −0.099** −0.112** −0.103** −0.171*** −0.036 0.092 
 (0.047) (0.046) (0.046) (0.059) (0.063)  
Panel B. TOT       
Enrolled in SU −0.115** −0.130** −0.120** −0.196*** −0.042 0.087 
 (0.054) (0.052) (0.052) (0.065) (0.072)  
Demographic controls No Yes Yes Yes Yes  
Baseline achievement No No Yes Yes Yes  
Control mean  .237  .306 .160  
Observations  279  143 136  
All StudentsBaseline Achievement
LowHighp-value
(1)(2)(3)(4)(5)(6)
Panel A. ITT       
Won lottery −0.099** −0.112** −0.103** −0.171*** −0.036 0.092 
 (0.047) (0.046) (0.046) (0.059) (0.063)  
Panel B. TOT       
Enrolled in SU −0.115** −0.130** −0.120** −0.196*** −0.042 0.087 
 (0.054) (0.052) (0.052) (0.065) (0.072)  
Demographic controls No Yes Yes Yes Yes  
Baseline achievement No No Yes Yes Yes  
Control mean  .237  .306 .160  
Observations  279  143 136  

Notes: The dependent variable is an indicator that takes on the value of one if the student received at least one suspension in ninth grade. The sample is composed of the 2012—14 StudentU cohorts (lottery winners and losers). Specifications with demographic controls include female, black, Hispanic, economically disadvantaged in fifth grade, age (at the beginning of fifth grade), charter enrollment in fifth grade, gifted in fifth grade, special education in fifth grade, and English Learner in fifth grade. Specifications with baseline achievement controls include math achievement in fifth grade and reading achievement in fifth grade. Models estimated on the full sample and by separately baseline achievement include cohort fixed-effects and cohort fixed-effects interacted with student gender. Panel A reports intent-to-treat (ITT) estimates, and panel B reports treatment-on-the-treated (TOT) estimates. First-stage estimates are presented in online appendix table A6. Robust standard errors are reported in parentheses. SU = StudentU.

Asterisks denote statistical significance: *p < 0.10, **p < 0.05, ***p < 0.01.

Close Modal

or Create an Account

Close Modal
Close Modal