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I do not find any statistically significant evidence to suggest that improvements in cognitive skills are a likely mechanism through which lottery winners improve their early high school outcomes, although I acknowledge that low statistical power is a concern for these outcomes.23 Table 8 presents ITT estimates of the effect of winning the lottery on math and reading test scores in eighth grade.24 For completeness, I present TOT estimates for the same outcomes in online appendix table A10.

Table 8.

The Effects of StudentU on Student Achievement (Eighth-Grade Test Scores) (Intent-to-Treat)

All StudentsBaseline Achievement
LowHighp-value
(1)(2)(3)(4)(5)(6)
Panel A. Math achievement       
 0.029 −0.010 −0.043 0.071 −0.154 0.147 
 (0.124) (0.105) (0.089) (0.114) (0.121)  
Control mean −0.199 −0.199 −0.199 −0.672 0.329  
Observations 275 275 275 135 140  
Panel B. Reading achievement       
 0.104 0.063 0.018 0.103 −0.065 0.187 
 (0.115) (0.096) (0.079) (0.105) (0.097)  
Control mean −0.205 −0.205 −0.205 −0.673 0.319  
Observations 275 275 275 135 140  
Demographic controls No Yes Yes Yes Yes  
Baseline achievement No No Yes Yes Yes  
All StudentsBaseline Achievement
LowHighp-value
(1)(2)(3)(4)(5)(6)
Panel A. Math achievement       
 0.029 −0.010 −0.043 0.071 −0.154 0.147 
 (0.124) (0.105) (0.089) (0.114) (0.121)  
Control mean −0.199 −0.199 −0.199 −0.672 0.329  
Observations 275 275 275 135 140  
Panel B. Reading achievement       
 0.104 0.063 0.018 0.103 −0.065 0.187 
 (0.115) (0.096) (0.079) (0.105) (0.097)  
Control mean −0.205 −0.205 −0.205 −0.673 0.319  
Observations 275 275 275 135 140  
Demographic controls No Yes Yes Yes Yes  
Baseline achievement No No Yes Yes Yes  

Notes: The dependent variable in panel A is math achievement in ninth grade (measured in standard deviation units), and the dependent variable in panel B is reading achievement in ninth grade (measured in standard deviation units). The sample is composed of the 2012—14 StudentU cohorts (lottery winners and losers). Specifications with demographic controls include female, black, Hispanic, economically disadvantaged in fifth grade, age (at the beginning of fifth grade), charter enrollment in fifth grade, gifted in fifth grade, special education in fifth grade, and English learner in fifth grade. Specifications with baseline achievement controls include math achievement in fifth grade and reading achievement in fifth grade. Models estimated on the full sample and by separately baseline achievement include cohort fixed-effects and cohort fixed-effects interacted with student gender. Robust standard errors are reported in parentheses.

Asterisks denote statistical significance: *p < 0.10, **p < 0.05, ***p < 0.01.

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