Probability
. | Estimate
. | Description
. | Evidence
. |
---|---|---|---|

P(T) | 0.5 | neutral | prior of T |

P(∼T) | 0.5 | neutral | 1 − prior |

P(E1|T) | 0.6 | weakly consistent | analogy to alpha helix |

P(E1|∼T) | 0.5 | neutral | hypothetical null model |

P(E2|T) | 0.6 | weakly consistent | X-ray data (28 A repeat) |

P(E2|∼T) | 0.5 | neutral | hypothetical null model |

P(E3|T) | 0.3 | strongly inconsistent | water content too low |

P(E3|∼T) | 0.5 | neutral | hypothetical null model |

P(E4|T) | 0.3 | strongly inconsistent | bond lengths/angles wrong |

P(E4|∼T) | 0.5 | neutral | hypothetical null model |

P(E5|T) | 0.3 | strongly inconsistent | positive ions not found |

P(E5|∼T) | 0.5 | neutral | hypothetical null model |

P(T|E1–E5) | 0.24 | disconfirm | % change = −52.0, LR = 0.31 |

Probability
. | Estimate
. | Description
. | Evidence
. |
---|---|---|---|

P(T) | 0.5 | neutral | prior of T |

P(∼T) | 0.5 | neutral | 1 − prior |

P(E1|T) | 0.6 | weakly consistent | analogy to alpha helix |

P(E1|∼T) | 0.5 | neutral | hypothetical null model |

P(E2|T) | 0.6 | weakly consistent | X-ray data (28 A repeat) |

P(E2|∼T) | 0.5 | neutral | hypothetical null model |

P(E3|T) | 0.3 | strongly inconsistent | water content too low |

P(E3|∼T) | 0.5 | neutral | hypothetical null model |

P(E4|T) | 0.3 | strongly inconsistent | bond lengths/angles wrong |

P(E4|∼T) | 0.5 | neutral | hypothetical null model |

P(E5|T) | 0.3 | strongly inconsistent | positive ions not found |

P(E5|∼T) | 0.5 | neutral | hypothetical null model |

P(T|E1–E5) | 0.24 | disconfirm | % change = −52.0, LR = 0.31 |

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