Table 3. 

Pauling’s view of his own model (no competing model)

ProbabilityEstimateDescriptionEvidence
P(T) 0.5 neutral prior of T 
P(∼T) 0.5 neutral 1 − prior 
P(E1|T) 0.6 weakly consistent analogy to alpha helix 
P(E1|∼T) 0.5 neutral hypothetical null model 
P(E2|T) 0.6 weakly consistent X-ray data (Astbury) 
P(E2|∼T) 0.5 neutral hypothetical null model 
P(E3|T) 0.3 strongly inconsistent bond lengths/angles wrong 
P(E3|∼T) 0.5 neutral hypothetical null model 
P(T|E1–E3) 0.46 disconfirm % change = −8.0, LR = 0.86 
ProbabilityEstimateDescriptionEvidence
P(T) 0.5 neutral prior of T 
P(∼T) 0.5 neutral 1 − prior 
P(E1|T) 0.6 weakly consistent analogy to alpha helix 
P(E1|∼T) 0.5 neutral hypothetical null model 
P(E2|T) 0.6 weakly consistent X-ray data (Astbury) 
P(E2|∼T) 0.5 neutral hypothetical null model 
P(E3|T) 0.3 strongly inconsistent bond lengths/angles wrong 
P(E3|∼T) 0.5 neutral hypothetical null model 
P(T|E1–E3) 0.46 disconfirm % change = −8.0, LR = 0.86 
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