Experimental prediction 2. (A) Schematic of the task for the case of a gaussian belief. The probability distribution of observations under the prior belief is shown by the solid black curve. Two different possible current beliefs (determined by the letters and ) are shown by dashed red curves. The intersections of the dashed red curves with the prior belief determine observations whose is same and equal to one, but their is a function of their probabilities under the prior belief . (B) The average surprise values and over 20 subjects (each with 500 observations) are shown for two different learning algorithms (Nas12 and pf20). The mean is constant (equal to 1) and independent of , whereas the mean is a decreasing function of . The shaded area corresponds to the standard error of the mean. The experimental task is the same as the gaussian task we used in the previous section. Observations are drawn from a gaussian distribution with , whose mean changes with change point probability (see section 4 for details).
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